sheTIME Straight talk on the feminine cycle

I’m usually in favour of knowledge over ignorance, especially when it comes to medical matters. I’ve argued that the more information one has, the more chance one has of making a good decision, and that even when the prognosis is bad, understanding it reduces it to a known quantity, something that one can plan for and around. The knowledge also gives one a starting point for comparison to other theories and for further research. I’m especially against the idea that someone other than the person concerned should make decisions about how much information is good for them. This adds insult to the original injury or illness by infantilising and thus disempowering the subject at a time when they most need to feel capable or to develop capability.

However, this article today in The Guardian gave me pause for thought:
‘Road map’ test can predict when the menopause will start. Denis Campbell reports that a new test has been developed which will “help women prepare mentally for losing their fertility and allow those in their late 30s and 40s who are considering trying for a baby to pinpoint just how long they have left to conceive.” This does sound potentially helpful, but the sentence that really worries me is this quote from Bill Ledger, a professor of obstetrics and gynaecology: “This test seems to be reasonably predictive of menopause.”

What does he mean by “reasonably”? It sounds like they’ve arrived at a test where on average they are more often right than wrong at predicting the remaining lifespan of a woman’s fertility. This might be very useful statistically, but it could have drastically negative effects on an individual woman’s state of mind if she hopes to conceive but is told that her chances are really low. Conception for the older woman ideally happens in a context of love and hopeful planning. The depression and tension that might result from a limiting prognosis on likely fertility could further reduce the possibility.

I don’t think I would be so concerned about this if the test were shown to be more accurate than “reasonably predictive”. I do agree that many woman specifically want an answer to the question, “How long do I have?” and I also think that some pain might be avoided if people don’t try to fall pregnant when the odds are very, very low. But the possibility that the answer might be wrong must be borne in mind. I have said elsewhere that the conception of a child is “no longer a miracle” in the sense that we now understand how it happens and we (largely) don’t believe that storks deliver babies or that virgin births are possible, at least for the general human population. However, the numerous emotional, environmental and biological factors that contribute to the making of a baby are still beyond the individual’s conscious comprehension or control at any one time, so we still relate to the happy event as though it were a miracle. And in this sense I think that a belief in miracles may allow one to manifest.

What do you think? Please share your stories about late conception or the onset of the menopause and your thoughts about whether you would go for the test described in Denis Campbell’s article and why or why not.

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